The Ebola outbreak running in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo since May has now recorded more cases and more deaths than any previous outbreak in the country’s history, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.
Two counts are in public circulation, and they differ. The World Health Organization’s Disease Outbreak News of 14 August, using data verified to 12 August, gave 4,665 confirmed cases and 2,184 deaths, a case fatality ratio of 46.8 per cent in the DRC, with 20 cases in Uganda and one in France. Africa CDC, in a statement on 17 August, gave more than 5,000 confirmed cases and more than 2,320 deaths, with the ratio approaching one in two. The gap is one of method and timing rather than disagreement: WHO publishes on a verification cycle that lags the field, while the continental agency reports the running total it holds. Both describe the same six provinces — Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-Uélé, Bas-Uélé and Tshopo.
What distinguishes this outbreak is its species and its speed. It is caused by Bundibugyo virus, for which, WHO states, there is no licensed vaccine or specific treatment; the Ervebo vaccine used against the Zaire species is not established against it. Africa CDC said the outbreak exceeded the 2018–2020 eastern DRC epidemic in both cases and deaths within twelve weeks, where the earlier one took close to two years. On 20 August WHO and Africa CDC welcomed an allocation by the International Coordinating Group on Vaccine Provision of 70,000 Ervebo doses to the DRC — 20,000 for a phase three clinical trial and 50,000 for frontline and health workers. That trial is, in effect, the test of whether the existing vaccine works against this virus.
WHO assesses the risk as very high within the DRC, high for Uganda and for countries sharing a land border, and low globally. Health workers themselves account for at least 155 confirmed cases and 45 deaths in the WHO count.